As Ohio Goes……
During my days in graduate school one of the
required classes for the program was a statistics class. The assignment on this
particular day was to statistically prove or disprove the statement that “As
Maine goes, so goes the nation,” referring to the people of Maine being able to
correctly pick the winning party in each of the Presidential elections.
(Let me assure you that this column will not
be a political endorsement of any candidate for any office, past, present, and
for sure, the future.)
Once considered a bellwether state for
politics and presidential elections, Maine earned its reputation of being able
to predict presidential political party outcomes as early as 1840. In that year
a Whig party candidate was elected governor of Maine in early September and two
months later, William Henry Harrison, a Whig party candidate won the 1840
presidential election.
Until 1957, Maine’s general elections were
held in September because of the early potato harvest in northern Maine and
generally the weather was better in the early Fall so people could get out to
vote. Only the presidential contests were held in November. As a result,
national political parties were eager to achieve wins in Maine’s early
Congressional and statewide elections, hoping to influence and predict the
outcome and winners of the Presidential election in November. Maine politics
played a major role in the national political landscape. Maybe? Of course there
are always exceptions to the rules.
In
November 1936, Maine and Vermont were the only states that Republican
nominee Alf Landon carried over President Franklin D. Roosevelt in
the 1936 Presidential election, giving Landon only eight electoral votes
(the three from Vermont and the five from Maine.
As the country prepares for what are now
called the ‘midterm elections’, candidates and the general public are preparing
for an onslaught of campaign rhetoric, political stories, advertising, and huge
amounts of money being spent to enhance a candidate’s standing in the public’s
eye in an effort to win their election. Every attempt will be made to announce
the winners and losers, even before the votes are counted. Here we are in May
2022 and already attempts are being made to predict the winners and losers. It’s
no wonder many believe, regardless of their political leanings believe that
their votes don’t count.
The ability of Mainers to predict the
outcome of the presidential elections, to remain as a bellwether for the
political fortunes of some and the demise of others disappeared with the
election of 1960 when Maine’s election law changed in 1959 ending the tradition
of early congressional and statewide voting to follow the lead of the rest of
the nation. But there have been some other
changes too.
As of 2020, the most widely cited bellwether state
in the country for predicting the
outcome
of the Presidential elections is now Ohio, with the exception of 2020. Ohio has
continuously
been an accurate predictor of the national outcome of presidential
elections
since 1964. Perhaps it is time to go back to the statistic class and graduate
school
and verify that “As Maine goes…” has been replaced. Should the history
books
replace it with Vermont? No. Wait. Can it really be Ohio? That just does not
have
the
same romantic or political ring as ‘Maine’. But for those who have some degree
of
patience,
which eliminates most of today’s current politicians, we will have to wait and
see.
2024 is just around the corner.
And by the way, the results of that graduate
school class project back in the early 70s,
the
result turned out to be? You guessed it. 50-50. So much for “will of the voter.”
